People are, on some level, fundamentally irrational beings. We buy lottery tickets. We go to the casino. We smoke cigarettes. We jump out of planes. We read horoscopes.
So it comes as no surprise that some people are hemming and hawing or just flat out refusing to get the H1N1 vaccine. “After all,” the fundamentally irrational being will say, “I’m perfectly healthy now, why waste my time/risk an adverse reaction/be injected with mind control drugs/insert lame excuse here.”
But given that you are an Unlimited reader and by extension almost certainly smarter and better looking than average, you’ve done the research, you’ve considered your options and you want to get the swine flu vaccine. I’m with you; by press time I’ll be innoculated. The next part is convincing your boss (maybe he’s one of those fundamentally irrational beings). In doing so feel free to use this article liberally in any convincing that you have to do.
Now I admit I’m not the type to rush to the front of the line (or wait 3-6 hours) for these things. I’m a healthy male in my mid-20s who’s had a clean bill of health the past three years. But an upcoming vacation is forcing me to examine the situation. I don’t want my month-long trip to New Zealand and Australia ruined by some flu spewing fellow passenger. So, as I am want to do I did some research and ran some numbers.
The Research
The regular seasonal flu you see every year will infect 10 to 20 per cent of the population with the elderly and previously sick being the biggest casualties. A rapidly spreading pandemic strain like H1N1 could infect 25-35% of the population and worst-case scenarios have that number going up to 50 per cent. Swine flu differs from seasonal flu in that it is killing younger people who were otherwise healthy. Another disturbing fact: two-thirds of those dying of H1N1 are women, something researchers are struggling to explain. (Source)
Of those that get H1N1 about one in 1000 will contract pneumonia. In these cases the virus gets deep into the respiratory system and the lungs fill with liquid. Of the one in 1000 that contract pneumonia about one in five will die. (Source)
The Numbers
+ If 25 per cent of the population of Canada gets swine flu about 8,303,174 will suffer from fever, coughing, chills, muscle aches, and extreme fatigue.
+ Of those 8,303,174, about 8,303 will get pneumonia. Their lungs will fill with liquid and those with severe infections will need respirators and heart-lung machines to survive.
+ Of those 8,303, about 1660 will die.
Twenty-five per cent is on the lower side for a pandemic. Let’s see what happens when a third of Canada gets the swine flu.
+ If 33 per cent of the population of Canada gets swine flu about 11,070,898 will suffer from fever, coughing, chills, muscle aches, and extreme fatigue.
+ Of those 11,070,898 about 11,070 will get pneumonia. Their lungs will fill with liquid and those with severe infections will need respirators and heart-lung machines to survive.
+ Of those 11,070 about 2,214 will die.
We can’t do a cost-benefit analysis for every situation that comes up but this was an easy decision for me and it should be an easy decision for who ever you have to convince.
Get your boss to perform a simple thought experiment. How much do they value you not being bed-ridden, getting hospitalized or dying vs spending half-a-day waiting in line to get poked in the arm with something that has a 90 per cent chance of stopping the above nastiness?
Exactly.
Tags: flu, H1N1, Productivity, vaccine
A follow-up. I just finished 2/3rds of The Road by Cormac McCarthy waiting in line to get my shot this morning. Not the best reading waiting in line for a vaccine shot.
Not a terrible line-up, it took me 2 1/2 hours but I got there an hour early.
When I sat down to get my shot right next to me were three young brothers screaming their heads off. As we were going through the prep we had to stop several times to let them work it out.
I’ll definitely do a bit more checking on it and probably get mine. Getting sick is costly especially if it can be prevented. What kind of side effects are associated with it? I’ve heard some ’stories’ but not sure how much truth comes from them.
I came to the opposite conclusion (though I’m still fence-sitting), based on the following:
- the swine flu vaccine is 90% effective (based on your loose numbers), but only for stopping the swine flu
- there are *scores* of flu or flu-like viruses out there each winter, all with some unknown but non-zero probability of infecting me [note: I need help from someone in epidemiology here with real numbers!]
- even if I get vaccinated against the swine flu, my guess is that I have only a trivially reduced chance of getting sick from another virus with the same set of nasty symptoms
I.e.: I’m going to probably get sick anyway.
The analogy I came up with is: I’ve got a roof with 30 holes in it. Vaccinations might plug up 3 or 4 of them (or about 10%). The flaw with the analogy is that rain falls usually equally distributed across the roof, and viruses aren’t evenly distributed.
So what I don’t know is: *how much* less likely am I to catch *any* viral infection if I vaccinate against swine flu (and whatever else is available)?
Flawed.
If your boss lets you get the vaccine, he doesn’t save 500+ lives. Instead, he loses an employee for half the day versus running the risk (25%) that he’ll lose that employee for a week. And of course the 25% chance of a week of downtime is a statistical 10 hour loss.
Eesh. A little hard on the “do the right thing” line, aren’t we?
Your “The Numbers” are what most would consider a “pandemic” and yet we’re already calling the ACTUAL numbers a pandemic. Lets hold off on the “advice as if it is fact” rationale. It bodes poorly.
While I think vaccines are a great thing, while I’m not part of “look away and don’t ask” movement that seems to be abundant with this particular 3 month old vaccine. As soon as anyone cites any concern, they’re told they are dumb. Not a good way to encourage debate.
I used to think about vaccines in terms of the cost-benefit to myself. Then I saw a demonstration of how quickly vaccines snuff out the spread of a virus. Now getting vaccinated seems like a public service on my part.
I think you should also consider http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
Dude … where are the side affect risks, probabilities and impact associated with the vaccine?
Your “research” is all based on a number pulled out of thin air (25%, 30%). In reality, less than 1% will get H1N1 and research has shown that H1N1 is a milder virus than the standard flu virus this year, as long as other immune deficiencies aren’t battling your system as well.
Based on the fact that this immunization has been pushed through, with very little testing and no long term testing, myself and my family will not be getting vaccinated (and we’re not the crazy no vaccination types). I’ve had this season’s flu virus and it really wasn’t that bad…
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